Big Data analytics links social networks and murder

Yale University researches say your odds of being murdered are very tightly aligned with your social network (and not your Facebook friends…your “real” friends and connections). That may seem like really old information, but it is more true and more concentrated than even the most experienced behavioral scientists previously thought. What that means for police and social workers is significant…it means more resources applied to fewer individuals stands to prevent homicide more effectively than ever before. Big Data saves lives, but if it were that simple, we could end this story there. Of course — it isn’t.

Analytics show homicide is contagious

Like many aspects of Big Data, knowing something isn’t nearly enough. Valuable information is actionable information. Actionable right now, before it gets old and before life-ending violence occurs. For that to be possible, the information has to be very reliable. The research shows that social network matters more than many things, including race or poverty (but yes, there’s a connection in the back end).

What the Yale researches discovered was summarized in their report, Network Exposure and Homicide Victimization in an African American Community:

[Homicide] is socially contagious, and associating with people engaged in risky behaviors — like carrying a firearm and engaging in criminal activities — increases the probability of victimization.

Within a given network, other attributes we would expect, like being a gang member, weren’t correlated to being murdered. What mattered was degree of separation from another homicide victim. For each degree of separation, the odds of being a victim of homicide went down by 57%. That’s an enormous drop that shows that the linkage relies on very tightly centered risk “nodes” within a social network. The study showed that 41% of all homicides in a neighborhood involve just 4% of a neighborhood’s population.

These are identifiable individuals.

Tom Cruise and Minority Report?

Which immediately takes us to a tough conversation about knowing and doing. If we can easily identify the very high risk individuals, what can we do to prevent a crime? How far can police go to warn and surveil the highest risk individuals? The Chicago Police Department has taken the step of identifying the 400 most likely to shoot or be shot and developed a “heat list” of people to target. According to the Sun Times:

…Austin District Cmdr. Barbara West went to the doors of the 25 people on her heat list. She dropped off a letter warning the targets to stop their criminal behavior or they would receive the most serious punishment possible. She also talked to the targets — or if they were not home, to relatives.

How would you feel if the Chicago PD knocked on your door for either reason?